Physical climate risk for Gulf businesses: heat, humid heat, water, dust and floods

Emissions reporting looks at what your company puts into the atmosphere. Physical climate risk looks the other way: what the climate can do to your company. It covers damage and disruption to buildings, equipment, staff, supply and income.

This article walks through five hazards for a business on the Gulf coast or inland in the UAE, using sources we opened and read. Where a source gives a number, we quote it with its source. Where it does not, we leave the number out.

A note on the tools

ThinkHazard! is an online tool launched by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), a facility based at the World Bank. It turns hazard data into plain-language ratings for a location. We use its ratings below. They describe a place in general, so they are a starting point and not a site survey.

1. Heat

ThinkHazard! rates the extreme heat hazard as High for the UAE as a whole and for Dubai. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that hot extremes, including heatwaves, have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions, and that with every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes continue to become larger.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that Asia's 2024 average temperature was about 1.04 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average, and that heat waves were reported in the Middle East. For a business, heat means higher cooling loads, stress on equipment and limits on outdoor work.

2. Humid heat

Temperature alone understates the danger on a humid coast. The wet-bulb temperature combines heat and humidity. A 2020 study in Science Advances by Raymond, Matthews and Horton states that a wet-bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius marks the upper physiological limit for people, that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported it, and that extreme humid heat has more than doubled in frequency since 1979.

The study names South Asia, the coastal Middle East and coastal southwest North America as hotspots, and reports monthly mean sea surface temperatures of 35.2 degrees Celsius in the Persian Gulf in 2017. It also describes the worst events as brief and local, lasting an hour or two at a station. That still matters for anyone working outdoors on a shift.

3. Water stress

ThinkHazard! rates water scarcity as High for the UAE and for Dubai. The World Resources Institute (WRI) built the Aqueduct tool to measure water risk. WRI explains that a country under extremely high baseline water stress uses over 80 percent of its renewable water supply. In its Aqueduct projected rankings for 2040, published in 2015, the UAE is tied for first place with a score of 5.0 out of 5.0. That is an older projection and should be read as a direction, not a forecast for your site.

For a business, water risk shows up as cost, supply interruptions and limits on water-intensive activity. Ask how much water you buy and what you would do if supply were reduced for a week.

4. Dust

The WMO lists the Arabian Desert among the most significant dust sources in the world. It says that sand and dust storms affect air quality and human health, disrupt transport and aviation, and strain water and energy systems. Globally, roughly 2,000 million tonnes of dust enter the atmosphere each year, and dust affects more than 150 countries.

WMO figures here are global, not UAE-specific. For your site, think about air filters, outdoor work, deliveries, and how long you could operate if a storm closed roads or flights.

5. Flash floods and the coast

In April 2024 the UAE received its heaviest rainfall in 75 years. Gulf News reported the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) confirming that Khatm Al Shakla in Al Ain recorded 254 millimetres of rain in less than 24 hours. The WMO's State of the Climate in Asia 2024 report gives 259.5 millimetres in 24 hours for the UAE, one of the most extreme events since records began in 1949. A research study of the Al Ain watershed found that one rain gauge recorded 254.8 millimetres, about 75 percent of the area's previously estimated probable maximum precipitation, and that flooding was significant in urbanised parts.

ThinkHazard! rates urban flood hazard as Low for Dubai and Low for the UAE, and rates coastal flood as High for both. A low long-term rating describes a rare event. It does not describe an impossible one. The IPCC adds that the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased since the 1950s over most land areas with sufficient data.

Five questions to ask about your site

• Heat: what happens to staff, stock and equipment if cooling fails for a day?
• Humid heat: do outdoor teams have a rule for stopping work and a place to cool down?
• Water: how much do you buy, and is there a backup?
• Dust: how often are filters and outdoor equipment cleaned, and what is the plan if roads close?
• Floods: where does water go on your street and car park, and is critical equipment above ground level?

DecarbOS Intelligence prepares physical climate reports for a location, alongside Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions reports. It does no consulting.

General information, not legal advice.